Protectionism resurfaces—and global markets brace for impact.
The re-emergence of tariffs as a central policy lever under a potential second Trump administration is reshaping expectations across global markets. Proposed blanket tariffs—10% on all imports, and 60% specifically on Chinese goods—signal a return to broad protectionist strategies unseen in decades.
These policies could provoke countermeasures, trigger trade disputes, and disrupt finely tuned supply chains. Multinational firms may accelerate plans to reshore or diversify production—shifting operations closer to end markets, or leaning on alternate hubs like Mexico, Vietnam, or India.
The result? Elevated volatility. Currency swings. Sectoral pivots. Investors and institutions alike will likely reassess risk models, hedging strategies, and portfolio allocations. Capital could shift toward more resilient, domestic-facing sectors like infrastructure, defense, logistics, and energy.
Periods like this—defined by geopolitical disruption and policy overcorrection—often surface hidden opportunities. Structured credit, non-bank liquidity, and private financing mechanisms may grow in relevance as conventional lending channels tighten in response.
There’s no certainty in this climate, but one thing is clear: protectionism, once thought to be a passing phase, is back at the table. And markets will need to adapt—not react.